New York-based Amex has been bullish on its cardholders’ health and spending trends despite macroeconomic headwinds, but the company has seen consumer delinquencies on their payments that are due tick up in recent months. 

Among its cardholders, delinquencies went from .7% in July, to .8% in August, to .9% in September, according to a Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Write-offs have remained the same, at .8%. 

Comparatively, delinquencies were .6% in July and August 2021 and .7% in September 2021. However, recent figures are still below 2019 levels: Delinquencies during that same three-month period that year were 1.5%.

COVID-19 pandemic-era government aid and low unemployment caused credit card delinquencies and write-offs to decline. Now, as inflation and interest rates climb, and unemployment is forecast to rise, analysts expect credit losses to grow.

Amex CFO Jeff Campbell said in September that he didn’t expect higher, pre-pandemic levels for consumer credit delinquencies and write-offs to return any time soon, partly because Amex has a more premium product mix today than it did pre-COVID.

On Friday, Campbell again said those metrics are expected to rise slowly over time, but for now they remain below pre-pandemic levels. Economists are predicting modest upticks in unemployment, and those are “contemplated in the guidance” the company has given, he noted.

By Caitlin Mullen on Oct 21, 2022
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